Risk Probability Simulator
Simulate risk probabilities using Monte Carlo methods.
Last reviewed by the Radiatus Cloud team
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Radiatus delivers secure cloud, DevOps & compliance engineering.
Model uncertain risk with simulation
A risk is not a single number but a range of possible outcomes with different likelihoods, and averaging them hides the tail that actually hurts. This simulator uses Monte Carlo methods to model risk probabilities, running many random trials to build a distribution of outcomes rather than a single point estimate.
Why Monte Carlo beats a single estimate
A single expected-value estimate of a risk, likelihood times impact, collapses a whole distribution into one number and hides the extremes. Monte Carlo simulation instead samples the uncertain inputs thousands of times and tallies the results, producing a picture of not just the average outcome but how often the bad tail occurs. That tail, the rare but severe case, is usually what risk management actually cares about, and it is exactly what a point estimate discards.
A distribution, not a guess
Everything runs in your browser, so nothing you enter is uploaded and the tool works offline once the page has loaded. There is no account, no tracking of your choices, and no server involved in the result.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is Monte Carlo simulation?
A method that runs many random trials, sampling uncertain inputs each time, to build a distribution of possible outcomes rather than a single estimate.
Why not just use likelihood times impact?
Because that collapses a whole range of outcomes into one number, hiding the severe-but-rare tail that risk management most needs to understand.
What does the simulation output?
A distribution showing how often each range of outcomes occurs, including the extreme cases, rather than a single expected value.
How many trials does it run?
Enough for the distribution to stabilise, since the picture becomes reliable only after many random samples are tallied.
Is my data uploaded?
No. The simulation runs entirely in your browser.
Privacy & Security
Simulation done locally.
About This Tool
This tool runs entirely in your browser. No data is sent to any server, ensuring complete privacy. Simply use the interface above to get started — no registration or login required.
Disclaimer: This tool is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Results are for educational and utility purposes.